Research

Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples | with Carlo Pizzinelli, Chris Roth, and Johannes Wohlfart | Accepted, Review of Economic Studies

Short summary: We study people's subjective models of the macroeconomy and shed light on their attentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic shocks on unemployment and inflation. Within samples of both 6,500 US households and 1,500 experts, beliefs are widely dispersed, even about the directional effects of shocks, and there are large differences in average beliefs between households and experts. Part of this disagreement arises from selective retrieval of different propagation channels of macroeconomic shocks.

Shallow Meritocracy

Coverage: Twitter thread

Short summary: Meritocracies aspire to reward effort and hard work but promise not to judge individuals by the circumstances they were born into. The choice to work hard is, however, often shaped by circumstances. In a series of incentivized experiments, I investigate whether people's merit judgments are sensitive to this endogeneity of choice. I find that individuals hold the disadvantaged worker fully responsible for his choice, ignoring the influence of circumstances.

Inflation Narratives | with Ingar Haaland, Chris Roth, and Johannes Wohlfart

Coverage: Twitter thread, VoxEU

Short summary: We provide evidence on the stories that people tell to explain the historically notable rise in inflation in 2021, using samples of experts, U.S. households, and managers. We document substantial heterogeneity in respondents' narratives and find that narratives about the drivers of the inflation increase are strongly correlated with beliefs about its persistence.

What's Worth Knowing? Economists' Opinions about Economics | with Armin Falk

Coverage: VoxEU, LSE Impact blog, Ökonomenstimme (German), atlantico (French), briq news room

Short summary: We document economists' opinions about what is worth knowing and ask (i) which research objectives economic research should embrace and (ii) which topics it should study. Almost 10,000 economic researchers from all fields and ranks participated in our global survey. We find that economists' opinions are vastly heterogeneous. Most researchers are dissatisfied with the current research topics and objectives in economics. On average, respondents think that economic research should become more policy-relevant, multidisciplinary, risky and disruptive, and pursue more diverse topics. Dissatisfaction with the status quo is more prevalent among female scholars and associated with lower job satisfaction.

Fighting Climate Change: The Role of Norms, Preferences, and Moral Values | with Teodora Boneva, Felix Chopra, and Armin Falk

Coverage: Ökonomenstimme (German), briq news room (German)

Short summary: We document individual willingness to fight climate change and its behavioral determinants in a large representative sample of US adults. Moreover, we document that Americans vastly underestimate the prevalence of climate-friendly behaviors and norms among their fellow citizens. Providing respondents with correct information causally raises individual willingness to fight climate change as well as individual support for climate policies.